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Monthly Prediction Variability Data

This page relates to the Guaranteed Outcomes offering.

AppNexus Guaranteed Outcomes allow a Buyer to pay on a different event than the seller, to support, for example, an agency or marketer who wishes to operate on a 100% viewable basis.  To achieve this, the AppNexus Exchange acts as a financial buffer between buyer and seller. On each impression, the AppNexus Exchange predicts the likelihood of a post-auction outcome.  We then pay the seller per impression based on that prediction. However, the buyer only pays AppNexus for impressions that are measured post-auction as having achieved a stated outcome. Thus, depending on the shifting accuracy of predictions, the Exchange may have a positive or negative balance over time. This variation is known as prediction variability.

We understand that this is a unique offering, but we are driven to build innovative solutions to big marketplace challenges.  We are also deeply committed to increasing transparency, efficiency and trust in the programmatic supply chain.  To that end, this page is designed to share the resulting monthly prediction variability rates for applicable transactions on the platform.


Monthly Summary

MonthPrediction Variability (%)
December, 2018-3.90
November, 2018-1.82
October, 2018-.67
September, 2018-4.4
August, 2018-2.3
July, 2018-1
June, 20181.5
May, 2018-0.8
April, 2018-3.0
March, 2018-0.5
February, 20184.6
January, 20180.9
December, 2017-3.0
November, 20170.4
October, 20172.0
September, 20172.0
August, 2017-4.3
July, 2017-4.9
June, 2017-9.1
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